Hi all, Hope you had a good holiday and are back to work fully recharged.
Someone mentioned that there was huge hoarding in Mumbai near the Exchange, " Thank God, 2008 is over".
Well, 2008 was a year of surprises. Century old institutions collapsed. Almost everyday there were fresh news of financial turmoil.
Cycle of Life. Everything in life follows a cycle. I am going to concentrate on the cycles related to Money.
There are three major cycles-Economic cycle, Stock market cycle, and real estate cycle that affect our life financially. Commodities pricing, inflation, interest rates have effect on the economic cycle predominantly.
Economic cycle is now in recession. So this year we are going to see negative growth. In layman terms is it means, factory shut downs, pay cuts, job loss and unemployment, and increase in robbery, theft etc. This year can be traumatic for many.
The stock market started to crash from July 2007. At that time, economy was doing very well. Companies were still showing profits, good bonuses etc. From July 2007, the stock market has lost almost 60%.
The real estate cycle in Singapore, is still relatively high although the peak was sometime in May 2008 for private property and Oct 2008 for HDB. I think most Asian countries had the same pattern. Europe and US have different timings.
Now while comparing the 3 cycles and its relationships, The stock market cycle is always ahead of the economic cycle, and the real estate cycle lags the economic cycle.
So if you are looking for investment opportunities, its never possible to time the market, however, the stock market is comedown a lot since july 2007. So 2009 should be a good year to get in. Now, the question of the recovery package not being effective, interest rate cuts and inflation will only show up as volatility in the stock market. So it could be a roller coaster ride but for the long term it should generate positve returns.
Do post your comments or views so that it will benefit all.
Have a wonderful day..... Swarna
Disclaimer: This is not any recommendation. Any investment done has to be done based on Risk Profile
Someone mentioned that there was huge hoarding in Mumbai near the Exchange, " Thank God, 2008 is over".
Well, 2008 was a year of surprises. Century old institutions collapsed. Almost everyday there were fresh news of financial turmoil.
Cycle of Life. Everything in life follows a cycle. I am going to concentrate on the cycles related to Money.
There are three major cycles-Economic cycle, Stock market cycle, and real estate cycle that affect our life financially. Commodities pricing, inflation, interest rates have effect on the economic cycle predominantly.
Economic cycle is now in recession. So this year we are going to see negative growth. In layman terms is it means, factory shut downs, pay cuts, job loss and unemployment, and increase in robbery, theft etc. This year can be traumatic for many.
The stock market started to crash from July 2007. At that time, economy was doing very well. Companies were still showing profits, good bonuses etc. From July 2007, the stock market has lost almost 60%.
The real estate cycle in Singapore, is still relatively high although the peak was sometime in May 2008 for private property and Oct 2008 for HDB. I think most Asian countries had the same pattern. Europe and US have different timings.
Now while comparing the 3 cycles and its relationships, The stock market cycle is always ahead of the economic cycle, and the real estate cycle lags the economic cycle.
So if you are looking for investment opportunities, its never possible to time the market, however, the stock market is comedown a lot since july 2007. So 2009 should be a good year to get in. Now, the question of the recovery package not being effective, interest rate cuts and inflation will only show up as volatility in the stock market. So it could be a roller coaster ride but for the long term it should generate positve returns.
Do post your comments or views so that it will benefit all.
Have a wonderful day..... Swarna
Disclaimer: This is not any recommendation. Any investment done has to be done based on Risk Profile
